After taking last weekend off, we are back with another week of American football selection of picks and thankfully, not have to watch the Volunteers play this weekend as they have an off week. If there was a spread on this week’s game against the bye, we would say to take the bye at -8.5 points as it would be inevitable that Tennessee would give up a few safeties on mis-snaps, fumbles, and possibly invent a brand new way to score on themselves. Let’s jump into some picks starting with the NCAA.
Georgia @ Kentucky
As has been the case the last three seasons, once again Georgia is on pace to make it to another SEC championship game and this year it seems to have really bolstered it’s defense and it’s offense is slowly on the rise averaging 33 points a game. They do have this particular matchup on the road, but after Kentucky’s 20-10 loss to Missouri last Saturday, and an off week for Georgia to prepare, this game does not appear to be one that will be close for very long. Kentucky’s offense looks better on paper than it actually is and when a very stout Georgia defense comes to town, we expect that Kentucky’s offense will be shut down for the duration of the game. If they can establish their run game, they may have an opportunity to play keep away, the problem is, Georgia only allows 65 rush yards a game and if we’re doing the math correctly, that won’t add up to many points for Kentucky and that’s the strongest part of their game. Georgia -15.5 at 1.90 odds is the play here.
Boston College @ Clemson
As much as we would like to do an in depth breakdown of this particular selection and really provide that expert analysis you have known to come and love, we ask ourselves “what is the point?” Clemson is Clemson and Boston College is not Clemson. That’s really all you need to know here. Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney seemed to take personal offense to the “energy levels” that were in question when they only put up 47 points against the Syracuse Orange last week after mustering 73 points the week prior. So we expect them to be up around 24-28 at half and why wait another half to cash a ticket when you can do it within 30 minutes? The play here is Clemson -17.5 in the first half at 1.83 odds.
Missouri @ Florida
When we looked at this line, we knew exactly why it was lower than expected: Florida hasn’t played much football. So we ran some calculations, input some numbers through a machine, consulted with our podiatrists (which really was pointless as we were thinking football, foot doctor maybe could give us an edge) but she doesn’t follow sports. Florida is the way better team here and a -13 point spread should not be hard to manage for the Gators even after a long layoff. They can put up the points without a doubt, and we assume that coach Dan Mullen has really emphasized defense in this long layoff. Florida -13 at 1.88 odds is the play here.
New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs
Every year around this time we always get the debate, could the best college team beat the worst NFL team. Every year. It gets so tiring to hear back and forth debates about it that we are only doing it right here, right now and we will never do it again. But yes, we do believe the Clemson Tigers could beat the Jets and ironically enough, next year, the Clemson starting QB will be a New York Jet. In one of the biggest spreads we have ever seen, the oddsmakers have picked the Chiefs to win by 19.5 points which is astronomical in the professional ranks. We do tend to lean more for the half lines with big lines such as this and we think the Chiefs will be up two touchdowns at the half and the Jets would actually count that as a victory. Take the Chiefs -12 for the first half here at 1.97 odds.
Tennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals
This one is a very interesting matchup as far as spreads go because of one very peculiar reason: Joe Burrow. He is 1-5-1 as the starting QB for the Bengals BUT is 5-2 against the spread which is quite impressive for a rookie QB. We think this week, though, that record drops to 5-3 because the Titans come to town and we just don’t think Burrow will have the ball enough times to help cover the +5.5 points he is being given. We see this around a 10-13 point game with Derrick Henry going for about 180 yards and 3 touchdowns by himself and Tannehill getting a couple of passing TD’s on what is an atrocious Bengals defense. Tennessee -5.5 is the play here.
Multi odds – 25.12*
*Odds correct at the time of writing.
If you like this week’s selection of tips, feel free to copy from sport:4054841 and you can chop and change your legs as you please.