English Premier League – Newcastle vs Leeds Total & Both Teams to Score Over 2.5 & Yes @ 1.85
Two of the worst four goal differences come up against each other to kick off the weekend, in a fixture where we can see goals.
Leeds have conceded 11 in their first four, and Newcastle 12! That is 23 goals in 8 games combined, and is reflective of their league positions. We will allow for some Leeds excuses, who have had a relatively hard run, facing Manchester United, Everton and Liverpool.
Newcastle would have hoped for better than a one point return, facing Southampton, Aston Villa and West Ham in their opening four.
The two fixtures between these two sides last season both would have seen this bet land, with 10 goals between them, including one 5-2 game which saw Leeds come out on top.
We expect Leeds certainly to get a result here, but it would not surprise us one bit to see goals flying in left, right and centre. 1 unit.
NFL – Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons – Handicap (incl. OT) Tampa Bay -10 @ 1.71
The Buccaneers are a very good football team. The Atlanta Falcons are a very bad football team. These seem like early conclusions after week 1, but they couldn’t be much further apart on the competitiveness spectrum. The Buccaneers held on to a tight victory over an impressive Cowboys outfit at home, whilst the Falcons were deplorable at home against a middle of the road Eagles team.Here’s a number for you – last weekend, only ONE Falcons wide receiver had a reception.
Their weapons are poor on offense outside of WR Calvin Ridley and rookie TE Kyle Pitts, and aging QB Matt Ryan doesn’t have the time or security he one did given the 24th-ranked offensive line in front of him (via analytics site PFF). This offensive line was atrocious last week, with many a Falcons fan online distraught at the sight of how badly the line held together.
The Falcons only scored one passing touchdown in the preseason and they scored just two field goals in their 32-6 home loss last week. They face the defending Super Bowl champions here, who possess one of the best defenses and a stacked offense. The Falcons could struggle mightily again on offense here – their poor O-line will have a hard time giving
Matt Ryan time to throw against a great Tampa front 7, who are also one of the stingiest defenses against the run in the NFL. Tom Brady has never lost to the Falcons in his career – all in all, we smell trouble brewing for Atlanta given the above. 1 unit.
English Premier League – West Ham United vs Manchester United – 1×2 & Total – Manchester United & Over 1.5 @ 1.98
The Hammers have made a strong start to this season’s Premier League, off the back of a stellar campaign last season which now sees them in this season’s Europa League. Returning to London after a 2-0 win abroad in Croatia against Dinamo Zagreb, David Moyes’ side will have no respite against a Manchester United side with sights firmly set on its first league title since the 2012/13 season, which would also be their first without legendary manager, Sir Alex Ferguson.
The Red Devils have made a blistering start to this season as well, with big wins over Leeds and Newcastle, as well as picking up a little-known Portuguese striker which could have serious ramifications on the league standings at the end of the season.
Despite a shock 2-1 loss to Young Boys in the Champions League this week, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side will go into this match much favoured than a West Ham outfit without their talisman, Michail Antonio.
One thing both teams bring to the table every week is an attacking threat, so expect some goals at the London Stadium this weekend. 1 unit.
MLS – Inter Miami vs NY Red Bulls – 1 x 2 Inter Miami @ $2.01
A playoff position is up for grabs for Club International de Futbol Miami in the coveted Friday night kickoff against NY Red Bulls, and with 16 points from their last 6 games, they’re on a roll.
Gonzalo Higuain (yes, he’s still around!) will lead the side up front, after scoring the winner against Columbus Crew last weekend, and having the luxury of a mid-week rest as Inter defeated Toronto at the death.
Phil Neville (also still around!) has been at the helm for nearly a year, and seems like he’s finally got the team where he wants them. NY Red Bulls are in a slump, languishing 9 points behind. They will also be weary they’re about to play 3 games in just 8 days. 1 unit.
English Premier League – Tottenham Vs Chelsea – Handicap Chelsea -1 @ 3.20
After winning their first three games of the season (including a 1-0 win over Manchester City) Spurs were brought crashing back down to Earth last weekend, getting comprehensively beaten 3-0 by Crystal Palace.
In fairness, apart from that opening day win over City their other victories so far have been a 1-0 victory over a Watford side that already look like they’re facing a relegation battle this season, and another 1-0 win over Wolves in a game where the team in orange were much the better side for long spells. The Palace game also saw Spurs central defence hit hard, with Japhet Tanganga sent off and Eric Dier forced off with inury.
Tanganga is suspended for this one as a result, while Dier is struggling to be fit in time along with Son Heung-Min, who will be a huge miss if unable to play.The Chelsea machine on the other hand rolled on, comfortably beating Aston Villa 3-0 with Romelu Lukaku again among the goals.
The European champions look incredibly strong this season, with Lukaku looking like providing the bit that was missing for them last year. The only team they’ve dropped points to so far is Liverpool (who also look very good this season), in a game where they had to play half of it with ten men. They don’t have any new injury concerns, with N’golo Kante returning from injury in time for this one.
I tipped up Chelsea to cover the handicap last week against Villa, and think they will again here against a Spurs team that is likely to have several key players missing. Lukaku could have a field day against a makeshift Spurs defence which is unlikely to have either first choice centre half in it.
Another factor here is the midweek games both played in Europe, with Chelsea getting two days extra to prepare after playing in the Champions League at home on Tuesday, compared to Spurs playing away on Thursday. 1 unit.
English Premier League – Aston Villa v Everton – Both Teams To Score Yes @ 1.76
- Dom Rae
The evening kick off on Saturday sees in-form Everton travel to Aston Villa in what the odds suggest will be a closely contested game. In Everton’s two away games so far this season they managed just 30% and 34% possession respectively, but still managed 14 attempts in each game, scoring twice.
It’s clear to see Rafa Benitez has his side well drilled and the lively Demarai Gray and Andros Townsend on the flanks look inspired signings who can trouble any side on the counter attack.
Villa on the other hand have adapted well to life without Jack Grealish, and Dean Smith boldly selected both Danny Ings and Ollie Watkins up front in last weekend’s 3-0 defeat to Chelsea, a result which had a lot to do with an inspired Edouard Mendy in goal for the home side.
The Villains will be looking to bounce back from that loss and if they play with the same approach they should be able to get on the scoresheet, while Everton will fancy their chances on the break having scored ten goals in their four games in the league so far. It’s difficult to call who will win this one but it should be an entertaining spectacle with both sides hitting the back of the net. 1 unit.
NFL – NY Jets vs New England Patriots – Handicap (incl. Overtime) New England -6.5 @ 2.02
The AFC East rookie quarterback battle takes place on Sunday between Mac Jones of New England and Zach Wilson of NY Jets. Jones finished solidly with 281 yards on 29 of 39 passing and a TD, and now faces a New York defence that allowed Sam Darnold to throw for 279 yards and score two TDs.
It was only a fumble from Damien Harris that halted a potential winning drive on his NFL debut. Although there was a couple of costly fumbles from their RB’s they did run for 4.2 yards per carry, so it will not fall solely on to Mac Jones’ young shoulders.
Zach Wilson made an impressive start himself with 258 passing yards, two touchdowns, however there was an interception in there too – not at all surprising when you watched the rookie run for his life on the majority of passing plays. After their offensive line struggled last week the Jets also have to deal with their starting left tackle missing this week.
It means it could be a great week for the New England defensive line, who managed six sacks last week themselves. Now, throw in the great Bill Belichick who has a great track record against rookie QBs and their signal calls…this could be a low points total from the Jets. 1 unit.
CSGO Blast Premier – Evil Geniuses vs Team Liquid – 1st Map Round 1 Winner Evil Geniuses @ 2.18
Small bit of value at 2.18 for EG here. Pistol rounds are generally a 50/50 given the lack of utility available and the general chaos that ensues. In the past 3 months, both EG and Team Liquid have won only 39% of their pistol rounds, which clearly shows this to be a coin flip. Considering the 1st map will also be EG’s pick, 2.18 seems like a great price. 1 unit.
English Premier League – Brighton & Hove Albion Vs Leicester City – Leicester City to Win @2.75
This Sunday lunchtime kickoff sees Leicester City travel to Falmer Stadium in Brighton for their clash with Brighton & Hove Albion. Leicester, famous for Premier League winning season in 2015-16, have been very strong in recent seasons since signing Brendan Rodgers as manager, finishing fifthin both of the last two seasons. Brighton on the other hand have been a team fighting to stay up, finishing in the bottom-6 in each of the last three seasons.
Out of the two teams I see Leicester as being a much stronger side, with a better manager, a better team structure, and a far better playing squad. While Brighton is at home, Leicester’s away record in recent years has been very strong, while Brighton’s home record doesn’t suggest Falmer stadium to be too much of a fortress for them.
Leicester are backing up from a Thursday night Europa league match, a 2-2 draw with Napoli, but this was played at home, and a number of the teams stars including Jamie Vardy, James Maddison did not start, so come Sunday they should bit fit and fresh, so i do not think fatigue will be too much of a factor.
I am happy to ignore Brighton’s current ladder position as all three victories have been against sides of a lower standard than Leicester. Leicester will have ambitions of finishing in the top-4 this year and to do that they will need to win matches like these. The head to head record has seen the two teams playing each other a total of eight times, with Leicester winning six and the other two encounters being draws. I see Leicester improving on that record on Sunday. 1 unit.
CSGO Blast Premier Ninjas in Pyjamas vs BIG – Correct Score (in Maps) 2:0 @3.25
BIG released one of their best players in “Xantares” about a month ago and debuted his replacement “gade” in the ESL Pro League 14.
The lineup showed potential in the early stages of the map, even beating eventual champions, NAVI, in the group stage. Unfortunately, that victory seemed like their peak and every match that followed was a loss, most recent of which was a 0-2 loss against Skade, a team outside the top 20 at that time.
NIP on the other hand, though a bit of a mixed bag, is still able to go toe-to-toe with higher ranked teams and even get some good results along the way. I think there might be value to be found in a 2-0 sweep by NIP at 3.25 0.5 unit.
This week’s Community Tip comes from chaindeepwood who has chosen the following.
NFL – Cincinnati @ Chicago – Handicap (incl. Overtime) Chicago -2 @ 1.84
Lets start a with a little fun fact. Matt Nagy is the betting favourite to be the first NFL coach fired and its time for Justin Fields to utilize him. The Bears defence will step up from week 1 to week 2. Cincinnati gave up 336 yards in the air last week.
Cincinnati also will be without their cornerback Trae Waynes and they are missing safety Ricardo Allen. Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its past five after a win. Chicago should be able to win at home. Not by much … but enough to cover the spread of 2 easily.