UFC 252 is upon us and breaking down this card was a very tough task. After watching previous fights, this card has some really interesting matchups and some of them are tough to call, as far as predicting what’s ahead.
As prefaced in our last article, here is a breakdown of how each pick should be looked at:
The Main Course is our strongest recommendation for what you need to wager on given both the pick itself, but also the value of both the odds and probability.
The Side Dish is our play that will coincide with the Main Entree. This is our supplemental pick that will usually have a great price and is a supplemental addition to your wagering.
The Dessert is our underdog pick for the fight. It may have the longest odds, but it will have the sweetest payout.
All Main Course selections will be put into a multi, as well as the Side Dishes and Desserts. From there, I will link the relevant bet ID’s for each set of selections and from there, you can pick and choose which ones you’d like to include in your own multi/parlay!
We’ve also got a selection of quick picks at the bottom of this article which will be put into a bet for you to use.
So without further adieu, here we go with our toughest card yet.
The Main Event: Cormier vs Miocic Part 3
After studying the last two bouts between these fighters, this may just be the closest championship fight this year will have to offer. After Miocic (19-3) won the rematch to take back the belt, this third installment will be an absolute thriller. The problem is, it’s really anybody’s guess what the outcome will be. Cormier (22-2) comes in as the slight favorite at 1.86 odds but with Miocic at 1.92, the oddsmakers are even thinking this is going to be a close matchup.
Watching these last two fights between them, one thing is for certain though, this won’t be a very long fight. Although it is scheduled for 5 rounds due to it being a championship fight, the way these two have fought in the prior matchups, there will be too much fatigue for it to go the full 25 minutes. Cormier has fought Miocic well even having an 8 inch reach disadvantage. The problem lies with the fact as he closes the distance he takes a lot of vicious shots, although to his credit, he also gets a few in as he closes the distance. This will be a great championship fight and if I had to lean one way I’ll take Cormier by a close one because of his wrestling skills.
The main course here is definitely the bet of “Will the fight go the distance” being no at 1.48 odds.
The side dish here is Cormier to win at 1.90 odds.
The dessert is Cormier winning in round 3 at 12.00 odds.
Junior Dos Santos vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik
When it comes to this card this is another fight you look at and consider it to be a close matchup that is too tough to pinpoint where an advantage is. Rozenstruik (10-1) probably would have been a bigger favorite than the 1.76 odds he currently sits at, had it not been for an embarrassing performance his last time out, being knocked out in 20 seconds. No one can blame Rozenstruik for losing but the way in which he lost was the strangest part. The punch that ultimately ended his undefeated run looked more like a glancing shot than one with much power behind it. On the other side of this matchup is Dos Santos (21-7) who has clearly lost a step from when he was in his prime.
His last two fights have made him look like he’s on his way to retirement if we see another repeat performance of a 1st or 2nd round knockout. He is currently sitting at 2.03 odds, but for it to be worth a bet, that would need to climb up to 2.5 or higher. This fight, on paper, favors it to be one that doesn’t go the distance, but with recent losses in the back of both their heads, you may see the pace of this fight be slower than you think. The edge will go to Rozenstruik, but how he wins depends on how much his last fight creeps into his head.
The main course here is Rozenstruik to win at 1.78 odds.
The side dish is the match going over 1.5 rounds at 1.91 odds.
The dessert is Rozenstruik by decision at 8.80 odds.
John Dodson vs Merab Dvalishvili
In this featherweight bout, we have what looks to be a fight that could go the distance 3 or 4 times as both these fighters seem to be immune to finishing fights or being finished in fights. Dodson (22-11) has had 6 of his last 7 fights go the distance and Dvalishvili (11-4) has had his last 4 go the distance.
Although Dodson, currently listed at 2.90 odds is around 7 years older than Dvalishvili, currently at 1.40 odds, this may be an instance where experience trumps youth. Dodson should be able to bring his expertise in defense into this match as Dvalishvili loves to go for the takedowns. Even if he lands a couple, Dodson has the ability to scramble out of them and get back to his feet. The question is can Dodson avoid losing 2 out of 3 rounds, since takedowns are a big part of scoring for judges. This fight inevitably looks like it goes all 3 rounds but a surprise may be in store for the audience with this one.
The Main Course here is the fight going the distance at 1.33 odds.
The side dish is a bit of an upset with Dodson take the victory at 2.90 odds.
The dessert here is Dodson by decision at 6.80 odds.
Sean O’Malley vs Marlon Vera – O’Malley shouldn’t have a tough time with Vera the way he’s looked. He’s arguably the most confident fighter in the industry right now and O’Malley by KO at 2.60 odds is the pick here.
Jim Miller vs Vinc Pichel – Another close matchup to call so over 2.5 rounds at 1.66 odds is the play here.
Herbert Burns vs Daniel Pineda – Burns should make quick work of Pineda on the ground, but there is no value in the submission at 1.78 odds being the way the fight ends. Burns may just grab a TKO instead, so the value lies at Burns by KO at 9.20 odds.
Main Course multi odds – 3.50
If you like our Main Course selections, use sport:2624880.
Side Dishes multi odds – 10.52
If you like our Side Dishes selections, use sport:2624895.
Dessert multi odds – 718.08
If you like our Dessert selections, use sport:2624905.
Quick pick multi odds – 39.71
If you like our Quick Picks, then use sport:2624921.
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